Due to the political and economic impact of the United States on the global market, the world watches as it prepares for the next 2024 presidential election. Like many other elections in the past, this election also has implications not only for the electorate in America but across the world. Though internal matters including the economy, healthcare, and immigration dominate the discourse, global leaders are keenly observing, every one of them having a stake in who will be steering the most influential democratic nation for the next four years.
In this article, we are going to focus on the stands and possible effects of the main foreign leaders on the 2024 US election. Across Europe and Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America, many international political actors have much to play for or lose depending on the outcome.
1. Vladimir Putin: The Russian Strategic Equation
Russian President Vladimir Putin has been a constant reference in American politics since the 2016 election when accusations of Russian meddling took center stage. Entering the year 2024, the Russian leader continues to remain an object of interest, although his impact has significantly changed. After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the Biden administration has been firm on Russia by mobilizing NATO allies to support Ukraine with arms, equipment, and sanctions on Russia and constant diplomacy.
Putin is expected to want a Republican win in 2024 because key Republicans like Donald Trump have questioned the US’s direct involvement in the war and have suggested that the US should focus less on Europe. The author argues that Trump’s “America First” policy and his lack of desire to directly oppose Russia during his presidency (2016-2020) means that there could be a change in the relationship between the two countries if the Republicans win. This may be Putin’s chance to gain a better deal on Ukraine, ease the sanctions, and regain power in Eastern Europe.
On the other hand, should the Democrats maintain control of the presidency, Putin is set to endure more diplomatic pressure with economic sanctions. The Biden administration has been unwavering in its support for Ukraine, and this will continue regardless of who succeeds him as long as it is a Democratic president.
2. Xi Jinping: Chinese Lense of the United States
For Chinese President Xi Jinping the 2024 U.S. election is a big deal. It is an economic, military, and technological confrontation, and the actions of the current administration in Washington will define Beijing’s behavior for years to come. During President Biden’s term, America has become more aggressive towards China, for instance, by restricting the export of semiconductor technologies and a renewed focus on building coalitions in the Indo-Pacific region.
China’s leadership perceives American engagement in Asia, especially attempts to strengthen the partnership with Japan, South Korea, and Australia as a threat to its hegemonic plans. Xi also observes how Washington deals with the Taiwan question, which is a major issue that may recast the entire U.S.-China relationship.
If a Republican were to get into the White House, Xi might view possible openings to negotiate trade terms that are more beneficial to the Chinese than the current administration has been willing to allow, especially if the U.S. shifts back to a strategy of cooperation rather than confrontation. While some GOP candidates have highlighted the economic gains of a trade partnership with China, all of them have agreed that Washington needs to engage with Beijing on human rights abuses and hacking.
Nevertheless, the narrative of China as a strategic competitor is shared by both parties, meaning that regardless of the outcome of the election, the confrontation between the two superpowers will remain the key driver of America’s foreign policy. For Xi, the way will be to manage all these challenges to preserve China’s strategic interests, especially on the Taiwan issue and the South China Sea.
3. Volodymyr Zelensky: Ukraine’s Future in the Balance
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been in the middle of the push by the West to counter Russian incursion. He has become a world leader due to his leadership during the war and the result of the U.S. election may greatly affect the continuing conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
During the Biden administration, the US has been a strong supporter of Ukraine, supplying it with billions of dollars in military and financial assistance and offering diplomatic backing. The support has been instrumental in the government led by Zelensky to keep on fighting Russian aggression. If Democrats win the presidential election in 2024, the United States will continue to support Ukraine in the war, which Zelensky urgently needs to achieve more results on the battlefield.
Nonetheless, in the case where a Republican candidate such as Donald Trump or another candidate with isolationist tendencies comes to power, Ukraine may receive less support. Trump has time and again wondered how deeply the United States is willing to get involved in the conflict, stating that European countries should bear more of the burden in defending Ukraine. This could result in a dramatic cut in American military assistance and could force Ukraine to seek a peaceful settlement to the conflict even if this means losing territory to Russia.
For Zelensky, the stakes are as high as they can get. The outcome of the 2024 US presidential election will decide whether Ukraine’s war effort will sustain the level of outside support it requires or whether it will have to start making concessions.
4. Emmanuel Macron: Europe’s Stake in U.S. Leadership
The French President, Emmanuel Macron, is keenly observing the 2024 US election for it is going to decide the future of Europe and its security and diplomacy. Macron has consistently pushed for the EU to build up its defense capacity, stating Europe cannot rely solely on the US, especially as it pivots to the Indo-Pacific and takes on China.
If the Republicans win in 2024, especially if they make America's first foreign policy even more dominant, it will further encourage Europe toward the path of more strategic autonomy. Macron has been keen to assert that Europe must be willing to defend itself, especially in the light of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Although he has been in close cooperation with President Biden on the NATO partnership, Macron also knows that the next American president may be less interested in NATO, which will reduce European security.
If the Democrats manage to maintain the White House, Macron will continue pressing for the strengthening of the relations between the United States and Europe on such matters as climate change, international trade, and security. The partnership with the United States and the European Union has been one of Macron’s foreign policy priorities, and he wants this cooperation to be successful, especially against the backdrop of new threats.
5. Mohammed bin Salman: The Middle East and U.S. Power Dynamics
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) is a new influential yet polarizing leader in the region. Still, his relationship with the United States has been somewhat strained in the past, especially with President Biden, who was initially very critical of the Saudi regime over human rights abuses and the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018. But Saudi Arabia’s geopolitical position – especially its status as a leading supplier of oil – has mandated Biden’s administration to deal with MBS in a utilitarian manner.
To Saudi Arabia, the U.S. election has its benefits as well as its drawbacks. The author of the article suggests that MBS is likely to prefer the Republicans since GOP administrations have traditionally been closer to Riyadh. Saudi Arabia benefited from Trump’s administration which was more interested in selling arms and countering Iran than in human rights violations.
If a Republican were to come to power in 2024, MBS might look forward to the reestablishment of a cold, realist relationship with Washington, based on defense sales, oil exports, and regional stability. On the other hand, it may mean that pressure on Saudi Arabia to change its human rights record would continue to be applied, but the world’s dependence on oil would limit significant changes.
6. Narendra Modi: India’s Balancing Act
Over the years, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has had a somewhat volatile relationship with the U.S. Since the arrival of Joe Biden at the White House, the partnership between the United States and India has been strengthened, especially in the framework of the Quad, a security dialogue between the United States, India, Japan, and Australia to confront Beijing’s presence in the Indo-Pacific region. Modi has been keen to present India as a significant global actor, maintaining relations with the US, Russia, and China.
For Modi, the 2024 US election is both an opportunity and a potential threat. If the Democrats were to win, then the focus would likely remain the same which is deepening the strategic and economic partnership between the U.S. and India. Modi has a good ally in Biden especially as both nations look to checkmate China’s rise in the region.
The Republican win could also be good for India, particularly if the US gets more confrontational with China. However, a change in government to a Republican one may well herald a new protectionist policy that would affect trade between the two countries.
The Modi government will most probably follow the same pragmatic policy toward the U.S., to make sure that India will have good relations with whoever will be in power after the U.S. elections. India is a rapidly emerging power on the global stage and thus is a valuable ally for the U.S., and Modi will not shy away from using this factor to his advantage for his country.
7. Andrés Manuel López Obrador: Mexico’s Proximity to U.S. Politics
Mexico’s President, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) has a personal interest in the 2024 U.S. election as it will occur during his administration. The two countries have a long and complicated border and their economic, security, and migration policies are linked. Since the Biden administration took over in January 2021, the bilateral relations between the United States and Mexico have involved cooperation on immigration and trade but with tensions over the borders and drug trafficking.
AMLO has not intervened much in U.S. domestic politics, but he was friendlier with Trump than with Biden. Trump and AMLO had somewhat more similar immigration policies, as long as the mutually agreed need to curb immigration from Central America was concerned, while Biden’s administration has been more liberal on immigration issues, which has forced Mexico to deal with increasing numbers of asylum seekers.
To AMLO, there is a lot at stake in the 2024 election, especially if a Republican president takes a harder line on the border or trade. That being said, AMLO is only in office until 2024 and the next president will be facing this relationship going forward.
The 2024 United States presidential election is not just an American election, it is a global election with effects that will be felt around the world. Russian, Chinese, Ukrainian, French, Saudi, Indian, and Mexican leaders, among others, have different things at stake since their national interests either converge or diverge with the next U.S. administration policies.
For these leaders, the election is a mix of danger and a chance for change in relations between their countries and the United States. These outcomes will define not only further strategies of the United States foreign policy but also general tendencies of power shift in the world that is becoming more multipolar. As the election approaches, the international interest is still significant, and everyone overseas will be waiting and planning for the next event.
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